As We May Think:
The advances made during the second world war were truly amazing. It must have seemed that there was not much more to discover. This is typical; when someone completes an introductory course in a new subject for example, one has little appreciation for the depth of knowledge unseen and unmentioned. This article is interesting from several perspectives. Historically, we get a sense of the excitement that existed at the time. The author 's vision became the inspiration for a host of new developments, and inspired untold numbers of researchers - some of whom went on to become significant 'visionaries' in their own time (such as Engelbart and Nelson). The article still has relevance today, 60 years later: the sentiment in many of the quotes below still applies.
I find it fascinating that the author has managed to touch on so many of the technological advances seen today: data mining; the internet; threaded communication; PDAs (the "memex"), etc., yet virtually none of them are described in their current form. It is no wonder it became such a ground-breaking article. There is a key feature missing from his projections: wireless technology. Another noteworthy difference is that AI technology is not nearly as advanced as was predicted. This one is common: it would appear that mankind has seriously underestimated the complexity of the mind. It was clear that "hands-free" technology was one of the goals, but the vision in this paper still had us wandering about with wires running up and down our bodies.
One thing I think this article (and others like it) shows is that even the best of us have a tendency to think in linear progressions when we think about the future: when it comes to the actual physical devices, most of the ones Bush describes are extensions of what existed in his time. Whether this is done deliberately to lend it plausibility, or unconsciously, I don't know.
"Yet specialization becomes increasingly necessary for progress, and the effort to bridge between disciplines is correspondingly superficial." Many would say that it is again time to create new bridges.
"Mendel's concept of the laws of genetics was lost to the world for a generation because his publication did not reach the few who were capable of grasping and extending it; and this sort of catastrophe is undoubtedly being repeated all about us, as truly significant attainments become lost in the mass of the inconsequential." - I love this! How true. STILL
"The summation of human experience is being expanded at a prodigious rate, and the means we use for threading through the consequent maze to the momentarily important item is the same as was used in the days of square-rigged ships." Also, still true.
"Complexity and unreliability were synonymous." - Still are, to a large extent.
"For mature thought there is no mechanical substitute. But creative thought and essentially repetitive thought are very different things. For the latter there are, and may be, powerful mechanical aids." Many people even today do not comprehend the distinction.
"If scientific reasoning were limited to the logical processes of arithmetic, we should not get far in our understanding of the physical world." Again, still true - and still a limitation for some.
"He is primarily an individual who is skilled in the use of symbolic logic on a high plane, and especially he is a man of intuitive judgment in the choice of the manipulative processes he employs." - Said of mathematicians, but also true of computer scientists, at least, the good ones.
"A new symbolism, probably positional, must apparently precede the reduction of mathematical transformations to machine processes." We are not very close on this yet.
EDER 679.12
Computer Based Learning II
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